by The most frustrating part of the retro gaming hobby is the inescapable truth that everyone is obsessed with prices. Collectors track the prices of their games in PriceCharting as if their games are stocks, store owners are naturally going to obsess over margins, and every hobby has flippers hunting for the next quick buck.
Small price fluctuations were a normal, but largely harmless, part of the hobby for the longest time. Around 2020, something changed. More people started taking up indoor hobbies around the time of the pandemic, and the stimulus checks in 2020 and 2021 gave people some extra cash to spend. Games that had sat at garage-sale prices for decades began climbing fast.
A bubble formed.
The prevailing narrative ever since has been that there still exists a retro gaming bubble, that interest in retro gaming is still as big as it once was, and that prices have only continued to increase. However, a closer look at the numbers shows that the bubble has actually largely already popped years ago.
Softening Demand
The first sign that something was off was purely anecdotal. The retro gaming community on almost every platform seems dead. You might have noticed that there are retro gaming Instagram and X accounts with hundreds, or even thousands, of followers that have just stopped posting. Maybe some of those people were your mutuals or friends of yours.
Also, several large retro gaming Facebook communities, which used to be bustling with activity, seem completely abandoned.
These anecdotes are largely intangible; there’s no easy way to measure the eerie feeling of a declining community. However, data from Google Trends validates this eerie feeling.
Google Trends analyzes search interest on a relative basis. Numbers are scaled from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the lowest search interest for the query during the selected time period and 100 represents the peak (highest) interest. The query chosen for this analysis is the generic term “retro games.”
As you can see, there were no noticeable spikes throughout 2020. A safe assumption would be that people were still reeling from the financial implications of the pandemic. Over 40 million unemployment claims were made during the spring of 2020. However, by 2021, the third stimulus check had hit bank accounts, and more people were starting to bounce back.
An interesting trend started to emerge. Every year since 2021, around October, a huge spike in interest for “retro games” would occur. This is likely due to Christmas shopping. However, what’s notable is that interest in “retro games” peaked in October, 2022. In each subsequent October, the spike was smaller than the last. This is a sure sign that general interest in retro games has waned.
Retro Gaming Prices
While general interest in retro gaming has declined significantly from its absolute peak, what’s often understated is the huge impact this has had on pricing.
The widespread belief is that retro game prices are still climbing and that prices are completely out of control. That is wrong.
While it’s true that prices have increased on a nominal basis, real (inflation-adjusted) prices of retro games have either decreased from their peaks or have increased only modestly.
This can be seen by comparing the actual prices from January 2020 through April 2026 to the same prices after they’ve been adjusted for inflation and expressed in constant January 2020 dollars. In other words, even though a game might carry a higher price tag today, once you account for inflation it might be just as affordable, or in some cases even more affordable, than it was previously.
First, let’s take a look at loose Nintendo Entertainment System cartridges. This is a good benchmark because of its large library (less of a chance to be impacted by a few expensive games) and ubiquity among retro game collectors.
Adjusted for inflation, the median price of loose NES games has only increased 23.74% from the start of 2020.
However, you might notice that the price of NES games actually peaked in 2021. Since the peak in December 2021, the real (inflation-adjusted) value of NES games has actually fallen by 7.4%. For all the talk about retro game prices going crazy, a decrease of 7.4% is quite shocking.
To be fair, the NES is an old console, and perhaps its audience is simply aging out of the hobby. Let’s take a look at the PlayStation which is also a good benchmark due to its large library and pervasiveness.
Adjusted for inflation, the median price of loose PS1 games has only increased 20.04% from the start of 2020. This is very similar to what we saw with NES games.
And just like with the NES, the current real (inflation-adjusted) value of PS1 games is actually down from its peak. Since the peak in November 2023, the real (inflation-adjusted) value of loose PS1 games has decreased by 9.54%. That’s quite a drop!
You might be thinking, “Nobody collects loose PS1 games.” While that’s true for many PS1 collectors, the PS1’s price trend is strikingly similar to the NES, and that similarity shouldn’t be overlooked.
But to pivot to a console where loose games are the standard, let’s look at the PS1’s direct competitor, the Nintendo 64. Keep in mind that the N64 features a much smaller library than the PS1, meaning a few expensive games can easily skew the data.
Adjusted for inflation, the median price of loose N64 games has increased 54.64% from the start of 2020, which is much higher than the number we saw from the NES and PS1.
However, compared to the largest price spike in February 2022, the real (inflation-adjusted) value of loose N64 games has only increased by a measly 3.5%. While still better than the NES and PS1, a tiny 3.5% increase in value over four years is not a good return at all.
The data could not be more clear. The retro gaming bubble is dead.
Retro Gaming Is a Good Hobby but a Terrible Investment
Retro gaming is simply not a good investment. If you “invested” in games at the start of 2020, you might have made some decent returns. But all bubbles burst. If you bought retro games as an “investment” during the absolute height of the bubble a few years back, you very well might be in the hole, and it could be a long time before you see meaningful returns.
Ultimately, this is a good thing for the hobbyists — you know, the people who like retro gaming for the games. The data doesn’t suggest that there is any need to worry about runaway prices. Compared to a few years ago, many games are actually more affordable.
This isn’t necessarily a bad thing for retro game store owners either. Even if the real value of “killer” titles remains elevated, stocking stores with bulk/filler is undeniably becoming more affordable. This compounds with the fact that retro gaming in general is becoming less trendy, which weeds out flippers who compete with store owners for inventory. Even if shops might see fewer casual impulse buys, the core customer base will remain.
As for the “investors” who flocked to the hobby attempting to profit off of a trend, they would be better off dumping their money into an index fund.
Over the same period discussed throughout this article, January 2020 to April 2026, the S&P 500 has grown significantly. Adjusted for inflation, the value of the S&P 500 has grown 56.25% with much less volatility compared to video games.
Do not waste your money attempting to “invest” in retro games. It’s not worth it. The bubble has popped.
